NEWS AND COMMENTARY
May 29, 2001
Consumers
Are Buying, But Not For Long
Don't be fooled into
thinking that higher consumer spending numbers mean the economy is turning
around.
When adjusted for inflation,
consumer spending increased only 0.2%. Although Americans
spent more on services, food and clothing in April, they spent less
on durable goods like cars and appliances. And sales of both new and
existing homes fell in April.
Americans also spent
more than they earned, causing the savings rate to fall from -0.6% in
March to -0.7% in April. Spending more than you earn is not a good idea
if you are already deeply in debt and facing increased prospects of
unemployment. Consumer debt is at historic highs, and consumer and business
bankruptcy filings were up 17.5% in the first quarter. Jobless claims
continue to rise, and the June employment report, to be issued Friday,
is expected to show a three-year high in the unemployment rate.
As Fed Chief Greenspan
acknowledged last week, consumer spending -- which accounts for two-thirds
of the country's economic activity -- has a huge impact on the economy.
But with increased levels of unemployment and minimal savings to fall
back on, Americans will be forced to cut their spending, dragging the
economy down even further.
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